Starmer's Backers Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Effort to Block Manchester Mayor's Commons Re-entry

Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly started a coordinated initiative to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a return to parliament. This move follows the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an impending by-election.

Significant Obstacles in the Selection Process

Several members on the party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection process. This is largely due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are desperate to head off any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The party apparatus reportedly swung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted consternation within No 10 and among senior ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had encouraged him to run for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is seeking a return to parliament to potentially stand for the Labour leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, supporters of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the extent of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely return national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour personality with favourable ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several hurdles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform and independent candidates, all prior to any potential bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour sources have indicated that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have reportedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

A number of insiders also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. There is also speculation the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

However, a supporter warned against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The unions occupy a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, sources indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question has a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform is expected to mount a significant challenge, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP stated he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his involvement in an offensive online group.