Daily Killings in Mexico Drop 37% In President Sheinbaum, As per Government Data

The mean number of per-day murders per month in Mexico has fallen by thirty-seven percent since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, as stated by recent administrative statistics. However, security analysts have warned that murder data might not indicate better countrywide stability.

Notable Decline in Per-Day Figures

Officials reported an mean of nearly 55 killings a day in the month of November as opposed to roughly 87 when Sheinbaum assumed the leadership in the previous September. This data was shared by the chief of the nation's national safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The figures in killings that we have seen in these past months is very important,” Sheinbaum stated, explaining that last month the least figure of murders were documented for any November in the last 10 years.

Historical Background and Official Plan

Violent organized crime rivalries, combined with the administration's highly militarised campaigns to take on the drug gangs, have made Mexico’s homicide rate rise sharply in the past few years. The figure peaked at a maximum of 36,773 killings in 2020, according to the nation's official data agency.

That gave Mexico a murder rate over 4x higher than the US. However, killings have been on the downward trend, falling to 33,550 last year. The President has attributed her public safety approach for an apparently sharper drop in homicides this year.

At a media briefing in August, the Mexican leader stated: “We have a plan, there is tracking of the strategy, and we have detailed monitoring locality by locality in some cases. The approach functions. And we have to persist at it daily.”

The key elements of the President's safety strategy encompass:

• Bolstering Mexico’s federal guard.
• Advancing intelligence and investigative capabilities.
• Greater cooperation between various authorities.

Analyst Caution and Statistical Limitations

Nevertheless, security researchers urged caution that focusing solely on murder numbers to paint a picture of peace was misleading. This is especially true in light of the increase in other crimes such as people going missing.

“That would be positive news if this were a drop, but I think we must not just concentrate on the murder numbers and say: ‘Well then, great,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexico's cartels. “I would be tentatively positive.”

As reported by the policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, murders in total fell by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of this year compared with the same period last year. However, missing persons cases have gone up by 15% and in some states have surged by as much as 200%.

“Statistics on murders is no longer valid for gauging the reality of insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who lack the resources or the inclination to properly identify and classify remains. Second, organised [criminals] … have the means to hide violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas pointed out that using monthly averages of daily killings was also concerning because it might mask periods when there were especially spiking levels of killings.

“Employing the per-day average makes surges of violence invisible,” he concluded.

Arrests and Confiscations as Metrics of Success

Where the administration can point to the effectiveness of its safety strategy is on detentions and confiscations. Close to 40,000 people were detained between October 2024 and this past November for high-impact crimes, per government figures. Over 20,000 guns were seized and 311 tons of narcotics confiscated.

“Trump cannot claim President Sheinbaum of inaction, because in reality she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of detentions, many thousands of seizures, and all the tactical degrading of criminal groups. It’s very in political terms advantageous,” said Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Public Frustration

But notwithstanding these efforts, Mexico is still grappling with high violence, with a number of states in the grip of cartel-related violence. Last month there was a prominent killing of a popular local official in the state of Michoacan, among 10 mayors murdered in the past year.

A short time later, thousands of youth took to the streets in the capital and across the nation to voice their outrage at corruption and narco-violence.

“The administration shares [data] in a way to construct a narrative of safety. Politically it’s extremely potent, from a social perspective it’s highly debatable,” the analyst said.