Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
